Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
